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Post by gopher on Nov 3, 2011 20:37:55 GMT -6
I was actually planning on posting this on Mojo sometime this week... heh.
My first in a series of The Thread Where Gopher Makes Inane Predictions is our favorite upcoming film, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part 1). And I am predicting 105m/245m. Keep in mind, that's still the second best opening weekend of the year, so it's still very good. And it's going to do 700m worldwide, because the OS box office is insane these days. But I could feel the launch of New Moon and Eclipse... I don't feel anything here. This is the book that alienated plenty of the series's fans. The Part 1 thing didn't even sit that well with Harry Potter. And then there's the utter lack of advance sales. NM and Eclipse were going very very fast at this point in time, and nothing in my area has sold out a BD midnight. People totally ignored this with TF3, and look, it opened low compared to online and industry expectations. And legs (which TF3 sort of sprouted) probably won't save any Twilight movie. And, finally, I think a little bit of the fanbase has just lost interest. Buzz is relatively soft for this, IMHO.
If I learned my lesson from NM and Eclipse, I wouldn't doubt Twilight at all anymore. But I consider BD the franchise's fall from grace.
Discuss. Next time, I predict 150m+ for War Horse.
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Totem
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Post by Totem on Nov 3, 2011 21:03:41 GMT -6
Plus it is really difficult for a franchise to consecutively increase 3 times.
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Post by gopher on Nov 3, 2011 21:35:16 GMT -6
Plus it is really difficult for a franchise to consecutively increase 3 times. I don't think that would be the reason why it opens 'low', but I'd imagine there's some fatigue, like there always is in sequels. Has any franchise that released its films over a consistent period increased three consecutive times? I suppose Potter films 3-6 did, but that's not really what I mean. |
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Post by noctis on Nov 4, 2011 1:06:34 GMT -6
105m? But why are the legs suddenly way better than NM or Eclipse? Hell, that's even better than DH1.
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Post by gopher on Nov 4, 2011 21:09:21 GMT -6
What I'm expecting right now- 24m midnights, 58m OD, 33m Saturday, 21m Sunday, 112m weekend, 230m total. I feel like the magic is gone. I will be wrong, obviously.
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Totem
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Post by Totem on Nov 4, 2011 21:13:07 GMT -6
Plus it is really difficult for a franchise to consecutively increase 3 times. I don't think that would be the reason why it opens 'low', but I'd imagine there's some fatigue, like there always is in sequels. Has any franchise that released its films over a consistent period increased three consecutive times? I suppose Potter films 3-6 did, but that's not really what I mean. Yeah I was talking about the total, the OW will be affected but I don't think to that extreme. Possible, the lack of buzz and even media interest seems pretty noticeable, presales don't seem great, I remember DH1 having good presales. I could see 130m/250-270m. |
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Post by tribefan695 on Nov 4, 2011 21:35:36 GMT -6
I could see this happening. Everyone's just waiting for its release to pass; no one seems really excited about it. Before its release some were touting Eclipse as the installment that could bring in casual viewers, there's been none of that here.
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Post by rainbowtrout on Nov 5, 2011 9:33:12 GMT -6
I could see this happening. Everyone's just waiting for its release to pass; no one seems really excited about it. Before its release some were touting Eclipse as the installment that could bring in casual viewers, there's been none of that here. I'm actually beginning to agree that BD1 just might disappoint. Advance sales have picked up a bit in my area, but it's nothing close to Eclipse. And by this point, there were a few leaks about how much better Eclipse was than the previous films (which was true). I wonder if BD1 should have taken that initial "R" rating it received and used it to drum up curiosity. BTW, maybe this thread should be re-titled with Breaking Dawn in the header since that's what it's focusing on? |
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Post by spaghetti on Nov 5, 2011 9:47:12 GMT -6
I'm not sure about Twilight, but I actually agree with your War Horse prediction. I wouldn't be surprised to see 200m + oscar sweep.
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Post by riczhang on Nov 5, 2011 13:05:00 GMT -6
I could see this happening. Everyone's just waiting for its release to pass; no one seems really excited about it. Before its release some were touting Eclipse as the installment that could bring in casual viewers, there's been none of that here. I'm actually beginning to agree that BD1 just might disappoint. Advance sales have picked up a bit in my area, but it's nothing close to Eclipse. And by this point, there were a few leaks about how much better Eclipse was than the previous films (which was true). I wonder if BD1 should have taken that initial "R" rating it received and used it to drum up curiosity. BTW, maybe this thread should be re-titled with Breaking Dawn in the header since that's what it's focusing on? I agree it's like 2 weeks to go, and my theatre has about 60% sold out right now for its only midnight showing of BD1, and I remember with Eclipse, and HP7.1, there were at least 3 midnights, and at least 2 of them had been sold out. Also, another showing the next day has only 18 tickets sold compared with at least 150-200 for both Eclipse and HP7.1, out of a possible 495 seats. |
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fmpro
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Post by fmpro on Nov 5, 2011 13:36:03 GMT -6
Maybe its not so crazy gopher..
You make some good points..
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Post by C. John on Nov 5, 2011 13:44:24 GMT -6
BD1 have no shows left on midnights here. Every single theater that is showing the movie on December 16 at midnight is sold out. And the 9:00PM shows on Thursday are getting very full too.
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Post by gopher on Nov 5, 2011 16:43:43 GMT -6
Yeah, but you're in Portugal. I think this could do two thirds of its worldwide cume overseas.
First midnight at my theater just went. For here, that's pretty sluggish, especially in comparisons to NM/Eclipse. They have one midnight listed for Twilight, and three for Happy Feet.. hmm.
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Post by C. John on Nov 5, 2011 16:47:23 GMT -6
Three for Happy Feet 2?? Why xD?
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Post by tribefan695 on Nov 5, 2011 16:51:12 GMT -6
bupkis? I can't remember the last time I heard that word
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Post by jajang on Nov 5, 2011 19:58:27 GMT -6
this prediction is that really out there to me. only the twihards would disagree in my opinion. While it's hard to go against history (new moon / eclipse), I just don't see the hype for this film. I am wondering if this is also suffering from the same problem DH1 did in the end which it was half a film ?
I mean DH1 / DH2 was promoted not long ago and I think the DH1 legs suffered as a result. This might be in peoples minds now that Twilights doing teh same thing with BD. hence you could see a downturn here but BD2 ends up being a big uptick .... just a thought.
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Post by tommycruise on Nov 5, 2011 20:04:11 GMT -6
While I do see a decrease, a decrease of that much is a little much, 120m+ OW will be the minimum and maybe a 270m total, but it certainly won't do as much as Eclipse.
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fake
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Post by fake on Nov 5, 2011 20:05:01 GMT -6
I don't know if it will go that low, but it definitely won't be breaking any record, it seems.
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Post by AA!™ on Nov 5, 2011 22:01:38 GMT -6
bupkis? I can't remember the last time I heard that word Spaceballs? |
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Post by Cedarpoint on Nov 5, 2011 22:47:53 GMT -6
145/290M
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Post by gopher on Nov 5, 2011 22:47:58 GMT -6
AA!!
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Post by Algren on Nov 6, 2011 8:40:53 GMT -6
Lower opening will help its legs. Fans that abandoned it on opening weekend will go later on because of good WOM. That's normal.
I think your opening post is realistic, Gopher.
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Post by rainbowtrout on Nov 6, 2011 9:32:17 GMT -6
Lower opening will help its legs. Fans that abandoned it on opening weekend will go later on because of good WOM. That's normal. I think your opening post is realistic, Gopher. I'm not sure there will be good WOM. There has been a screening already and there are no leaks about the film being surprisingly good, which happened with Eclipse. I thought all along that Bill Condon was the worst possible choice for BD since he's very campy to begin with, and there's a good chance that this will be a trainwreck. And I say this as a Twilight fan. |
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Post by Algren on Nov 6, 2011 9:58:27 GMT -6
Well, yeah, I have no idea at all whether this will have good WOM, I was just throwing it out there as a possibility if it did have good WOM.
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Post by theultimatebiu on Nov 6, 2011 10:36:35 GMT -6
I never doubt Twihards but this installment is definitely not getting the hype previous installments did. Its opening in two weeks and I have yet to hear much about it
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Post by baumer on Nov 6, 2011 12:30:38 GMT -6
Nope. Disagree. Don't reasons, just do.  |
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Post by fishnets on Nov 6, 2011 15:20:18 GMT -6
War Horse looks like a total Oscar wankjob forgettable dross that appeals to older crowd so $150 mio is possible.
Breaking Dawn Pt 1 will be the highest grossing Twilihgt movie. I don`t know where you got "soft buzz" thing but that`s definitely not true. Buzz is through the roof, actually.
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Post by baumer on Nov 6, 2011 16:09:57 GMT -6
What buzz do you need to "hear" in order for there to be buzz? Do any of your friends,colleagues, church buddies, social circle or any other kind of association you belong to ever talk about it? And if they don't, does that mean there is no buzz?
Why would the film just suddenly drop out of the twi hard must see list? That makes no sense. And you know just as well as I do that this will end up doing 270-310. A 10% drop from the third to the penultimate is perfectly normal.
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Post by baumer on Nov 6, 2011 16:11:45 GMT -6
For the record, my prediction is 145/290
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Post by fishnets on Nov 6, 2011 16:13:26 GMT -6
Exactly. This movie is the culmination of Bella&Edward relationship so drop in interest is super unlikely at this point. That`s just wishful thinking on some people`s part but not real prediction.
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