Weekend Predictions Thread (11/4-11/6)

[kayumanggames]

Impact, 17.1 M for HAPPY FEET ll?

[C. John]

November Predictions - Openers Only

Jack & Jill - 22.3M
Immortals - 10.4M
J. Edgar - 8.9M

Breaking Dawn 1 - 145.8M
Happy Feet 2 - 15.6M

The Muppets - 27.1M/35.7M
Arthur Christmas - 18.8M/25.0M
Hugo - 16.7M/20.1M

[tribefan695]

What's with the low predictions for Happy Feet? I mean, yeah, it looks bad, but as counterprogramming to Twilight I don't expect it to completely tank like that.

[C. John]

I can't believe that is the best story they could come with for a sequel to a oscar winning movie.

[kayumanggames]

But I think families won't care. These teen numbers for HAPPY FEET ll are just so low.

[C. John]

We will see who is right in 2 weeks.

[kayumanggames]

Yes, and in our new home.

[C. John]

Our new home... I really want to go there. A new start

[Totem]

Nov 5, 2011 10:38:07 GMT -6 giantcalbears said:

Nov 5, 2011 8:23:23 GMT -6 Totem said:

Huh? It is estimated at 15m for the weekend.

no I just said that $7.5M was way undershooting it and it should do double that

Woops I misread, thought you made the 7.5m prediction.

[gopher]

Happy Feet's good for a 30m opening. I see Muppets opening to Enchanted numbers but I'd love to see something like what Tangled did. Arthur and Hugo will open softly, but have nice legs.

[thatpj]

um I don't know
Jack and Jill 25M
Immortals 15M
J. Edgar 10M

[Totem]

Jack & Jill - 26.8m
Immortals - 20.0m

[jaybeezy]

Jack and Jill - 22M
Immortals - 18M
Edgar - 11M

[spmahn]

I'm willing to bet Jack and Jill doesn't even crack 20 million OW. Adam Sandler's star is so faded, and the trailers for this look unfathomably awful. Even amongst the people I know that watch any piece of shit comedy and claim it was good, the concensus seems to be that this is one to avoid. I say this one hits 18 Million OW at most.

[jaybeezy]

Nov 6, 2011 14:56:19 GMT -6 spmahn said:

I'm willing to bet Jack and Jill doesn't even crack 20 million OW. Adam Sandler's star is so faded, and the trailers for this look unfathomably awful. Even amongst the people I know that watch any piece of shit comedy and claim it was good, the concensus seems to be that this is one to avoid. I say this one hits 18 Million OW at most.

I'm not buying into the whole argument that Sandler's name alone will guarantee Jack and Jill at least 30M because as far as I see, that's the only real case they're making for it. However, as much as I want it to open low, I don't think it's a good idea to underestimate just because it looks like a new low for him. That's why I'm in the low to mid 20s.

[gopher]

I don't see Jack and Jill reaching 20m either. Consider it Little Nicky syndrome. Adam Sandler stories that are the most relatable to the average joe (group of ordinary guys coming together one summer, ordinary guy gets a kid, ordinary guy gets really rich, ordinary guy pretends Jennifer Aniston is his ex to sleep with another attractive person) are usually the best received. The ones that aren't (guy isn't ordinary because he's the Devil's son or whatever, guy isn't ordinary because he's the Zohan, guy isn't ordinary because he's an over the hill, lovesick Adam Sandler-esque star) usually get the boot at the box office. This Sandler movie is actually just relying on a gimmick (Sandler plays a guy and his female twin sister), which is even less relatable.

That, and it looks like ass.

[Hallowed Prince]

Jack and Jill will somehow make 20M or more next weekend. Adam Sandler's star power still has something left even if the movie itself does look like crap. Hopefully Immortals hits more near Conan the Barbarian because it looks awful. J. Edgar won't make any more than 7M. Puss in Boots looks to become the first film since The Help to threepeat with 25M next weekend.

[Totem]

The break outs this year have found great legs but most couldn't really open well enough to give themselves enough of a foundation to leg off.

I wish Thor had made 200m+.

[C. John]

Shut up gopher, Zohan is awesome xD

[filmnerdjamie]

Jack & Jill - 27 M
Immortals - 11 M
J. Edgar - 8 M

[kyky]

Jack and Jill - 18M
Immortals - 19M
Edgar - 12M

[danwo]

openers:
Jack and Jill 20.1
Immortals: 17.5
J. Edgar: 11.7
holdovers:
Puss In Boots: 20.5
Tower Heist: 12.1
Harold and Kumar 3: 7.7

[theturk]

My Early Numbers:

1. Puss In Boots - 26.1M
2. Immortals - 19.4M
3. Jack & Jill - 16.0M
4. Tower Heist - 15.6M
5. J. Edgar - 13.0M
6. A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas - 5.0M
7. In Time - 3.9M
8. Paranormal Activity 3 - 3.5M
9. Footloose - 2.7M
10. Real Steel - 2.0M

[smallville944]

11/14/11-11/16/11 Predictions

1. Puss in Boots - $22.5 million (-32%) [$107.9 million]

2. Immortals - $19.7 million (NEW) [$19.7 million]

3. Jack & Jill - $19.1 million (NEW) [$19.1 million]

4. Tower Heist - $13.9 million (-42%) [$45.1 million]

5. J. Edgar - $12.3 million (NEW) [$12.3 million]

6. A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas - $7.2 million (-45%) [$24.1 million]

7. Paranormal Activity 3 - $4.3 million (-48%) [$101.9 million]

8. In Time - $3.8 million (-50%) [$13.6 million]

9. footloose - $3.2 million (-30%) [$49.3 million]

10. Real Steel - $2.2 million (-35%) [$82.0 million]

11. The Rum Diary - $1.6 million (-44%) [$12.9 million]

12. The Ides of March - $1.2 million (-38%) [$38.5 million]

2011: $122.0 million (+6.7%)
2010: $121.4 million (+0.5%)
2009: $140.0 million (-12.9%)

[tribefan695]

Martha Marcy May Marlene is going wide this week according to HSX